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<text id=89TT1391>
<title>
May 29, 1989: Try To Stop Me, If You Can
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1989
May 29, 1989 China In Turmoil
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
BUSINESS, Page 69
Try to Stop Me, If You Can
</hdr><body>
<p>A powerful rally turns the U.S. dollar into a raging buck
</p>
<p> There it went again: up, up and away. As fidgety
governments struggled with little success to halt the trend, the
U.S. dollar took off last week on the sharpest rally since it
surged to record heights against major currencies in 1985. The
frenzied rise -- which brought the greenback's gain against the
West German mark and the Japanese yen to 12.5% so far this year
-- raised disturbing doubts about the ability of the U.S. and
its major trading partners to keep exchange rates under control.
"This is a runaway freight train," said Jay Goldinger, a Los
Angeles-based trader. "Anyone who tries to stand in the way will
be run over."
</p>
<p> The rally surprised experts, most of whom had expected the
dollar to drift lower this year. Their best explanation: a
combination of high U.S. interest rates, which make the dollar
attractive to foreign investors, and the political woes of West
Germany and Japan. The Japanese have yet to pick a successor to
Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, who announced his resignation
in April over a stock scandal; in West Germany, Chancellor
Helmut Kohl's Christian Democrat Union has lost two important
local elections this year. Moreover, even though the yield on
such securities as ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has slipped from
9.2% earlier this month to 8.8% last week, it remains higher
than the return on comparable securities abroad.
</p>
<p> Such considerations helped spur the rally last week even as
governments dumped billions of dollars onto foreign exchange
markets in an effort to push the U.S. currency down. Traders
continued to snap up dollars after Washington reported that,
with exports up 7.4%, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $8.86
billion in March, down from $9.82 billion the previous month.
A day later investors shrugged off the news that the Consumer
Price Index rose a sharp 0.7% in April because the gain
reflected a record 11.4% surge in gasoline prices that is not
expected to recur.
</p>
<p> At week's end traders pushed the dollar to a 2 1/2-year
high of 1.977 West German marks. That pierced the 1.90-mark
ceiling that the U.S. and its trading partners reportedly agreed
to in a 1987 accord. In Tokyo the dollar's high reached 139.88
yen, its loftiest level in 16 months and just below the 140-yen
ceiling that the allies set. The U.S. and its partners are
determined to do what they can to slam on the brakes -- but
whether their efforts would slow down the runaway dollar
remained an open question.
</p>
</body></article>
</text>